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Metro Phoenix Home STATS

We have one of the BEST Multiple Listings Services (MLS) available…and they provide us with relevant market data. Since everyone is talking about the “market” everywhere you go..I thought I would share some real numbers.

All of this data is quoted from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc…or ARMLS as we refer to it.

“SALES   Month over Month

Monthly Sales in December were 8,401, a 23.8% increase over November’s 6,786. This complements an upward sales trend for the whole fourth quarter.  The highest sales for 2010 of 9,280 occurred in June. This month  over month gain coupled with the fourth quarter trend demonstrates a metric clearly moving in the right direction, after a pattern for 2010 characterized by a “one step forward and two steps back” phenomenon. The December Sales figure ends the year as a 45.12% increase compared to the January figure (5,789) at the start of the year.

SALES   Year over Year
December’s 8,401 Sales total represents a  9.7% increase over  2009’s December Sales figure of 7,657. In addition, it is the second largest November  to December monthly gain (23.8%) of the decade, just below the November to December gain (24.98%) in 2008.
December New Inventory (9,443) declined  13.9% or 1,526 listings from November’s 10,969. This month’s New Inventory figure follows a steady decline started in September. This is in line with a pattern of November to December declines in New Inventory experienced every December since 2001.  New Inventory added to the market in 2010 was 148,968, 1.17% increase over the same  figure for 2009, but well below the figures for 2006, 2007 and 2008 (173,363, 165,615, and 162,181 respectively). New Inventory added to the Total Inventory each month is an important factor in the supply and demand balance, as greater supplies support a Buyer’s market and exert downward pressure on pricing.
Total Inventory declined 2,890 listings in December to 42,463, a 6.37% decline from November. Total inventory remained flat during 2010 with an average of 43,088 per month.
MSI for December declined to 5.05, representing the first drop below 6 months since June, and  a positive step toward a balanced market.  A Seller’s market is typically defined as a months supply of inventory in the 4-5 month range, while a Buyer’s market is described as a 6 month or greater supply.  While MSI is a barometer of overall market health, it may not represent an accurate picture of inventory supply in specific market
niches. The December decline from 6.68 to 5.05 months is a drop of 1.63 months or 24.4%. While this is  a very positive metric, a quick glance at the historic new listing and sold data shows that new listings rise significantly from December to January  each year, and sales significantly fall from December to  January each year.  Thus next month’s  inventory rise coupled with fewer sales, could cause the MSI to rise again.
Both the median and average List Prices added to the market continued downward in December.  Median List Price dropped 3.2% to $118,000 from November’s $121,900.  Likewise the average List Price declined 7.5% to $191,000 from November’s $206,400.
December’s Median Sales Price was $110,200, a 4.2% decline from November, and a 12.9% decline from December 2009.  The median value represents the midpoint in a market where there are as many sales above that value as below.  Great housing affordability in the Valley was fueled by the declining median price trend line in 2010. The average Sales Price for December rose $1,400 to $160,400, a .9% gain over November, but 9.7% decrease from December 2009.
The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS which forecasts Median and Average Sales Prices for the coming three months based on the pending sales data in the MLS. The PPI’s predictive accuracy naturally declines the further into the future it goes, as the number of transactions in the forecast lessens. The actual Median Sales Price for December was $110,200, which was 4.17% below the December figure predicted in November.  The Average Sales Price for December was $160,400, or 1.47% below the December Average predicted in November.  While the actual numbers may deviate from predicted values, the forecast value for the direction of market pricing remains true.
The three month predictions for Median Sales Price for January, February and March are $115,000, $112,000 and $110,000 respectively, indicating continuing downward pricing pressures well into the first quarter.  Likewise, Average Sales Price predictions follow a similar downward forecast for January, February and March of  $159,400, $158,200, and $145,800 respectively. Downward pricing pressure in the Valley is influenced by the large, steady supply of homes (42,463) and the disproportionate percentage (69.6%) of Distressed Sales relative to the Total Sales.

Foreclosures Pending for December (41,485) is right below the July-November average of 41,603. The trend line for Foreclosures Pending has remained relatively flat since July, hovering between 41,203 and 41,958.
Lender Owned Sales for December (4,061) increased by 1,172 sales from November, representing the highest month over month change all year of 40.57%.  December’s Lender Owned Sales accounted for 48.3% of the total December Sales, representing the highest percentage of total sales for all of 2010, spurred by Buyer/investor motivation to close and lender incentive to clear inventory from their books all before January 1.
December’s Distressed Sales (5,849), a composite of Lender Owned Sales and Short Sales, accounted for 69.6% of Total Sales (8,401), and were well above 2010’s monthly average of 4,665, or 62.18% of Total Sales.  The December Short Sale component of Distressed Sales saw a 31.3% rise in number of units sold to 1,788 over November’s 1,362. Short Sales accounted for 21.3% of Total Sales in December.  Clearly, distressed properties continue to drive the market and exert downward pressure on pricing.
Average DOM finished 2010 at 115, which included an additional 23 days added over the course of the year.  This was a 25% increase to DOM since January (92 days). Despite a slight drop in April (97) and May (96), the Average DOM trend line for 2010 was upward, a typical response of a market in over supply. “

Ok…it’s not all “happy” news…but the deals out there are unbelievable! AND interest rates seem to be on the rise…so get off the fence and in the game!  🙂

As always… if you are looking for a GREAT agent to help with your real estate needs please e-mail me at or give me a call (or text) at 602-504-3898 or 888-897-7821 x 114. Plus, I have a GREAT search tool on my web site that gives you the ability to search the entire MLS…just like agents do. Very COOL! ;) Go to Metro Phoenix Homes and check it out! YOU can create and save as many searches as you would like…and it is THE SAME SEARCH I DO AS AN AGENT! You will LOVE it!


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